Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Oct 11 · 17:00 · Benfica vs Vitória SC
Likeliest: Benfica win · 77%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 77% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Benfica77%74%+3
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−1
OursMarket
Vitória SC8%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Benfica
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at FC Porto (A)1-3
- Sep 16 · at AC Milan (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Gil Vicente (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · at Moreirense (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Marítimo (A)3-0
Vitória SC
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v Moreirense (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Casa Pia (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v CD Nacional (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Benfica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.