Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 19:00 · Benin vs Mauritania
Likeliest: Mauritania win · 40%
A 40% draw. The market says 31%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Benin21%35%−15
OursMarket
Draw40%31%+9
OursMarket
Mauritania40%34%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 38% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 45% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 66% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 65% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 61% | 69% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 51% | −17 |
| Expected goals | 0.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Benin
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 25 · at Burkina Faso (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · at Togo (A)1-5
- Jun 5 · v Niger (H)1-1
- Mar 31 · at Guinea (A)1-0
- Mar 27 · v Liberia (H)1-0
Mauritania
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 24 · v Central African Republic (H)3-1
- Jun 8 · v Niger (H)1-0
- Jun 5 · at Angola (A)1-1
- Mar 27 · at Argentina (A)1-2
- Nov 15 · at Libya (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Benin | Mauritania |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-3 | 2-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.