Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Beşiktaş win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Beşiktaş43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Crystal Palace31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 63% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Beşiktaş
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 19 · at Trabzonspor (A)0-2
- Oct 15 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
- Oct 11 · v Kocaelispor (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)2-3
- Sep 17 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)4-1
Crystal Palace
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-5
- Oct 15 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-3
- Oct 11 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Lech Poznań (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Beşiktaş | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.