Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 11 · 16:00 · Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor
Likeliest: Beşiktaş win · 77%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 77% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Beşiktaş77%74%+2
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Kocaelispor7%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 23% | 26% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Beşiktaş
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)2-3
- Sep 17 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)4-1
- Sep 11 · v Erzurumspor FK (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Fenerbahçe (A)2-1
- Aug 31 · v Çorum FK (H)6-2
Kocaelispor
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Gaziantep FK (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Galatasaray (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Samsunspor (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Konyaspor (A)2-1
- Aug 24 · v Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Beşiktaş | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.