Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 17 · 19:00 · Beşiktaş vs Olympique de Marseille
Likeliest: Beşiktaş win · 53%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 60%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Beşiktaş53%54%0
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Olympique de Marseille24%22%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 60% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 78% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 71% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Beşiktaş
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 11 · v Erzurumspor FK (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Fenerbahçe (A)2-1
- Aug 31 · v Çorum FK (H)6-2
- Aug 27 · at FK Kauno Žalgiris (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Alanyaspor (A)0-1
Olympique de Marseille
WinLossLossLoss
- Sep 11 · at Stade Rennais (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Paris FC (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at AS Monaco (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · v RC Strasbourg (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Beşiktaş | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 20% | — |
| Clean sheets | 60% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.