EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 19:00 · Birmingham City vs Brentford
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 46%
We make it 59% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City46%24%+22
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Brentford27%50%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 56% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 57% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 50% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 76% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 32% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · at Swansea City (A)1-0
- May 2 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Bristol City (H)2-1
Brentford
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Aug 22 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-2
- May 9 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- May 2 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.