Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · Birmingham City vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City51%54%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Bristol City24%21%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 72% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Apr 22 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Hull City (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Wrexham (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- Apr 3 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-1
Bristol City
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Apr 21 · at Southampton (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Norwich City (H)2-4
- Apr 11 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
- Apr 3 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.