Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 11:30 · Birmingham City vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 54%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Bristol City21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 53% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 72% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 15 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · at Swansea City (A)1-0
- May 2 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Bristol City (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
Bristol City
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 15 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Aug 6 · v Walsall (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 25 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · at Southampton (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.