Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 · Birmingham City vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 63%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City63%60%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic16%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Dec 9 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Dec 1 · v Watford (H)2-1
- Nov 26 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Norwich City (H)4-1
Charlton Athletic
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Dec 9 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-2
- Nov 29 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Nov 25 · at Stoke City (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Southampton (H)1-5
- Nov 8 · at Wrexham (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Birmingham City form·Charlton Athletic form·Head-to-head record