Championship (England) · Fri, Dec 26 · 12:30 · Birmingham City vs Derby County
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 58%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City58%51%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Derby County19%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 49% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 70% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Dec 20 · at Sheffield United (A)0-3
- Dec 13 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Dec 9 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Dec 1 · v Watford (H)2-1
Derby County
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Dec 20 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Dec 15 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-0
- Dec 10 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Leicester City (H)1-3
- Nov 29 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.