Championship (England) · Mon, Mar 2 · 20:00 · Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 62%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City62%35%+27
OursMarket
Draw19%27%−8
OursMarket
Middlesbrough19%37%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 63% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 65% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 73% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 48% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Feb 25 · at Millwall (A)0-3
- Feb 21 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
- Feb 15 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Feb 10 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
Middlesbrough
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Feb 24 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
- Feb 16 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Feb 9 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.