Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City30%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Middlesbrough42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Sep 9 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Wolverhampton (H)2-2
- Sep 1 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
Middlesbrough
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 15 · v Millwall (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Norwich City (H)4-3
- Sep 8 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Burnley (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.