Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 4 · 19:45 · Birmingham City vs Millwall
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Birmingham City51%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
Millwall26%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Nov 1 · v Portsmouth (H)4-0
- Oct 25 · at Bristol City (A)0-1
- Oct 21 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
- Oct 18 · v Hull City (H)2-3
- Oct 3 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
Millwall
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 1 · at Oxford United (A)2-2
- Oct 25 · v Leicester City (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Oct 18 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
- Oct 4 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.