Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · Birmingham City vs Millwall
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 47%
Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Millwall26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 31 · at Lincoln City (A)3-1
- Oct 24 · at Cardiff City (A)0-1
- Oct 17 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-0
- Oct 13 · v Preston North End (H)4-0
- Oct 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-0
Millwall
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 31 · v Derby County (H)4-1
- Oct 24 · at Portsmouth (A)1-2
- Oct 17 · v Lincoln City (H)2-2
- Oct 13 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Preston North End (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.