Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · Birmingham City vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 71%
A 71% home win. The market says 58%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City71%58%+13
OursMarket
Draw18%24%−6
OursMarket
Norwich City12%18%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 82% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 42% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 76% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Nov 8 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Nov 4 · v Millwall (H)4-0
- Nov 1 · v Portsmouth (H)4-0
- Oct 25 · at Bristol City (A)0-1
- Oct 21 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
Norwich City
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Nov 8 · v Leicester City (H)1-2
- Nov 5 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · v Hull City (H)0-2
- Oct 25 · at Swansea City (A)1-2
- Oct 21 · at Derby County (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.