Championship (England) · Wed, Apr 22 · 18:45 · Birmingham City vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 56%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City56%57%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Preston North End20%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 43% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 75% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Apr 18 · at Hull City (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Wrexham (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- Apr 3 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-1
- Mar 21 · at Derby County (A)0-1
Preston North End
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Apr 18 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Apr 6 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at Leicester City (A)2-2
- Mar 20 · v Stoke City (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Birmingham City form·Preston North End form·Head-to-head record