Championship (England) · Tue, Oct 13 · 19:00 · Birmingham City vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Preston North End18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Sep 9 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Wolverhampton (H)2-2
Preston North End
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Millwall (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Watford (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Birmingham City form·Preston North End form·Head-to-head record