Championship (England) · Wed, Mar 11 · 19:45 · Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 65%
A 65% home win. The market says 54%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City65%54%+11
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−6
OursMarket
Queens Park Rangers15%20%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 80% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 46% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 73% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 7 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Mar 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-3
- Feb 25 · at Millwall (A)0-3
- Feb 21 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
- Feb 15 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
Queens Park Rangers
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)0-4
- Feb 28 · v Sheffield United (H)0-2
- Feb 24 · at Southampton (A)0-5
- Feb 21 · at Hull City (A)3-1
- Feb 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Birmingham City form·Queens Park Rangers form·Head-to-head record