Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Queens Park Rangers25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 13 · v Preston North End (H)4-0
- Oct 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Sep 9 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
Queens Park Rangers
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 14 · v Derby County (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Preston North End (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Birmingham City form·Queens Park Rangers form·Head-to-head record