Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 14 · 15:00 · Birmingham City vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 50%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City50%42%+8
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Sheffield United27%31%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 58% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinLossLossLossWin
- Mar 11 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Mar 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-3
- Feb 25 · at Millwall (A)0-3
- Feb 21 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
Sheffield United
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Mar 11 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Mar 7 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-0
- Feb 25 · v Coventry City (H)1-2
- Feb 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Birmingham City form·Sheffield United form·Head-to-head record