Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 29 · 20:15 · Birmingham City vs Southampton
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 58%
A 58% home win. The market says 39%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City58%39%+18
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−6
OursMarket
Southampton21%33%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 67% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 61% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 54% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Dec 26 · v Derby County (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Sheffield United (A)0-3
- Dec 13 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Dec 9 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · at Southampton (A)1-3
Southampton
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Dec 26 · at Oxford United (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Coventry City (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
- Dec 6 · v Birmingham City (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.