Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 19:00 · Birmingham City vs Southampton
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 39%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City39%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−3
OursMarket
Southampton37%33%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 51% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 54% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Aug 28 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Aug 25 · v Brentford (H)1-6
- Aug 22 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · at Swansea City (A)1-0
Southampton
WinLossWinLossWin
- Aug 29 · v Millwall (H)5-1
- Aug 25 · v West Ham United (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · v Stoke City (H)3-1
- Aug 16 · at Watford (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Colchester United (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.