Championship (England) · Tue, Feb 10 · 20:00 · Birmingham City vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 61%
A 61% home win. The market says 50%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City61%50%+11
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion18%23%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 77% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 50% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 69% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Jan 31 · at Oxford United (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Stoke City (H)1-1
- Jan 20 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
- Jan 17 · at Swansea City (A)1-1
West Bromwich Albion
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Feb 7 · v Stoke City (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Portsmouth (A)0-3
- Jan 23 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Jan 20 · v Norwich City (H)0-5
- Jan 16 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Birmingham City form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record