Championship (England) · Sun, Sep 6 · 11:00 · Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 59%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City59%32%+27
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−8
OursMarket
Wolverhampton20%39%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 45% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 61% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 68% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 45% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 1 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Aug 25 · v Brentford (H)1-6
- Aug 22 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
Wolverhampton
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 1 · at West Ham United (A)2-4
- Aug 29 · v Stoke City (H)4-1
- Aug 25 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Aug 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.