Championship (England) · Sun, Apr 12 · 11:00 · Birmingham City vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 41%
A 34% away win. The market says 28%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City41%45%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Wrexham34%28%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 72% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 62% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 6 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- Apr 3 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-1
- Mar 21 · at Derby County (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Sheffield United (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-0
Wrexham
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Apr 7 · v Southampton (H)1-5
- Apr 3 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
- Mar 17 · at Watford (A)1-3
- Mar 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Birmingham City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.