Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Sep 13 · 13:00 · Birmingham City W.F.C. vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham City W.F.C.17%20%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%21%0
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion61%59%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 25% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham City W.F.C.
Loss
- Sep 6 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
Brighton & Hove Albion
Loss
- Sep 6 · v Arsenal (H)0-1