USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:00 · Birmingham Legion FC vs Loudoun United FC
Likeliest: Birmingham Legion FC win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Birmingham Legion FC44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Loudoun United FC31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Birmingham Legion FC
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 14 · at SC Jacksonville (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at SC Jacksonville (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Brooklyn FC (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (A)0-4
Loudoun United FC
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Rhode Island FC (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Miami FC (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Indy Eleven (H)1-1
- Sep 25 · at SC Jacksonville (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Louisville City FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Birmingham Legion FC | Loudoun United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.