Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF
Likeliest: BK Häcken win · 68%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
BK Häcken68%64%+3
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Degerfors IF13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 36% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
BK Häcken
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Malmö FF (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Örgryte IS (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Kalmar (A)5-0
- Sep 11 · v Mjällby (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at GAIS (A)0-0
Degerfors IF
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 19 · v Kalmar (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Mjällby (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Hammarby (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · at IK Sirius (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Halmstads BK (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | BK Häcken | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.