Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:30 · BK Häcken vs Örgryte IS
Likeliest: BK Häcken win · 74%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
BK Häcken74%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Örgryte IS10%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
BK Häcken
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 20 · at Kalmar (A)5-0
- Sep 11 · v Mjällby (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at GAIS (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Västerås SK (H)1-3
- Aug 25 · at Utsiktens BK (A)2-1
Örgryte IS
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v IK Sirius (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Malmö FF (A)1-4
- Sep 6 · v Hammarby (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Göteborg (A)0-1
- Aug 25 · at Eskilsminne IF (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | BK Häcken | Örgryte IS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.