Championship (England) · Tue, Feb 24 · 19:45 · Blackburn Rovers vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Blackburn Rovers win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 39%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers50%39%+11
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−4
OursMarket
Bristol City25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 61% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 55% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
LossWinLossWinWin
- Feb 20 · v Preston North End (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-1
- Feb 7 · at Norwich City (A)0-2
- Feb 3 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · v Hull City (H)0-1
Bristol City
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Feb 21 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Feb 17 · v Wrexham (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Hull City (A)3-2
- Jan 30 · v Derby County (H)0-5
- Jan 24 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.