Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Cardiff City39%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Portsmouth (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Millwall (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Preston North End (A)1-2
- Sep 1 · at Lincoln City (A)0-0
Cardiff City
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Stoke City (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Portsmouth (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.