Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 12:30 · Blackburn Rovers vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 47%
A 29% home win. The market says 22%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers29%22%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Middlesbrough47%51%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 78% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 30% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Mar 14 · at Millwall (A)2-1
- Mar 11 · at Oxford United (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Derby County (A)1-3
- Feb 24 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
Middlesbrough
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Mar 14 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Charlton Athletic (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)4-0
- Mar 2 · at Birmingham City (A)3-1
- Feb 24 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Blackburn Rovers form·Middlesbrough form·Head-to-head record