Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Blackburn Rovers vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Blackburn Rovers win · 40%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers40%27%+13
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Middlesbrough33%45%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 47% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 55% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 73% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 37% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 14 · at Wolverhampton (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Burton Albion (A)2-1
- May 2 · v Leicester City (H)0-1
- Apr 22 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Apr 17 · v Coventry City (H)1-1
Middlesbrough
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Aug 15 · v Lincoln City (H)2-1
- Aug 7 · v Wrexham (H)1-0
- May 23 · at Hull City (A)0-1
- May 12 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Southampton (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Blackburn Rovers form·Middlesbrough form·Head-to-head record