Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 12:30 · Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall
Likeliest: Blackburn Rovers win · 40%
A 33% away win. The market says 27%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers40%44%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Millwall33%27%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 73% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 62% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 13 · at Portsmouth (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
- Dec 2 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Nov 26 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-1
Millwall
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Dec 13 · v Hull City (H)1-3
- Dec 10 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Southampton (H)3-2
- Nov 26 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.