Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Millwall40%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 8 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Preston North End (A)1-2
- Sep 1 · at Lincoln City (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-2
- Aug 25 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
Millwall
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 8 · v Newcastle United (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)4-0
- Sep 2 · v Wrexham (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Southampton (A)1-5
- Aug 25 · at Cambridge United (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.