Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 7 · 12:30 · Blackburn Rovers vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Blackburn Rovers win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 37%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers47%37%+11
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−4
OursMarket
Portsmouth27%34%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 40% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 66% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 63% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 52% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 28 · at Derby County (A)1-3
- Feb 24 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · v Preston North End (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-1
- Feb 7 · at Norwich City (A)0-2
Portsmouth
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 28 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Feb 24 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Millwall (A)3-1
- Feb 17 · at Charlton Athletic (A)3-1
- Feb 14 · v Sheffield United (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.