Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Blackburn Rovers win · 37%
Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 0–0 10% · 1–2 9%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers37%40%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Stoke City32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 31 · at Swansea City (A)0-4
- Oct 24 · v Wrexham (H)2-0
- Oct 17 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-3
- Oct 13 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Cardiff City (H)2-1
Stoke City
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 31 · v Preston North End (H)2-0
- Oct 24 · v Bristol City (H)0-0
- Oct 17 · at Derby County (A)1-0
- Oct 13 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.