Championship (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 12:30 · Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Blackburn Rovers win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 44%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers54%44%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Wrexham21%28%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 56% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 61% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Dec 29 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
- Dec 26 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Millwall (H)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Portsmouth (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
Wrexham
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Dec 29 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Sheffield United (H)5-3
- Dec 19 · at Swansea City (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · v Watford (H)2-2
- Dec 10 · at Hull City (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.