Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackburn Rovers32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Wrexham36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackburn Rovers
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-3
- Oct 13 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Cardiff City (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Portsmouth (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Millwall (H)3-1
Wrexham
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Preston North End (H)4-1
- Oct 13 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at West Ham United (A)0-6
| Last 10 games | Blackburn Rovers | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.