Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Blackpool vs Crewe Alexandra
Likeliest: Blackpool win · 55%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackpool55%55%0
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Crewe Alexandra21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 54% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackpool
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 22 · at Wigan Athletic (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · v Bromley (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Reading (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · at Barnsley (A)1-2
Crewe Alexandra
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Bristol Rovers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Rotherham United (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Aston Villa U21 (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Colchester United (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Blackpool | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.