EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:45 · Blackpool vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Blackpool win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 26%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackpool39%26%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Lincoln City35%47%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 53% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 53% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 74% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 36% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackpool
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 22 · at Stockport County (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Grimsby Town (A)3-1
- May 2 · at Reading (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · v Leyton Orient (H)1-0
Lincoln City
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 22 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- May 2 · at Port Vale (A)2-0
- Apr 25 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | Blackpool | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.