League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Blackpool vs Mansfield Town
Likeliest: Blackpool win · 36%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackpool36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Mansfield Town35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackpool
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Cambridge United (A)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Wigan Athletic (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-4
Mansfield Town
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 15 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Bromley (H)2-1
- Oct 6 · at Port Vale (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Huddersfield Town (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Blackpool | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.