League One (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Blackpool vs Plymouth Argyle
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blackpool34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Plymouth Argyle40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blackpool
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · v Bromley (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Reading (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · at Barnsley (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Peterborough United (H)4-0
- Aug 25 · v Lincoln City (H)1-4
Plymouth Argyle
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Barnsley (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-2
- Sep 1 · at Leicester City (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v Bradford City (H)2-0
- Aug 25 · v Coventry City (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Blackpool | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.