J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 4 · 05:00 · Blaublitz Akita vs Sagan Tosu
Likeliest: Sagan Tosu win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blaublitz Akita26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Sagan Tosu42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blaublitz Akita
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · v Albirex Niigata (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)4-1
- Sep 6 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)0-1
Sagan Tosu
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Vissel Kobe (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Iwaki FC (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · at FC Imabari (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Blaublitz Akita | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.