División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · Blooming vs Independiente Petrolero
Likeliest: Blooming win · 75%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 75% for the home win. The market says 72%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Blooming75%72%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Independiente Petrolero9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 28% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Blooming
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Bolívar (A)0-1
- Sep 17 · v FC Universitario de Vinto (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Academia del Balompié Boliviano (H)6-1
- Sep 7 · at Nacional Potosí (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · v CDT Real Oruro (H)1-1
Independiente Petrolero
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 12 · at Club Always Ready (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Bolívar (H)0-4
- Aug 27 · v Guabirá (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Blooming | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.