Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Mon, Sep 7 · 17:15 · Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem
Likeliest: Bnei Sakhnin win · 37%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bnei Sakhnin37%15%+22
OursMarket
Draw27%21%+6
OursMarket
Beitar Jerusalem36%64%−27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 36% | +28 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 85% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 19% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bnei Sakhnin
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · v Maccabi Petach Tikva (H)1-2
- Aug 24 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)0-0
- May 18 · at Hapoel Haifa (A)0-3
- May 13 · v Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)0-4
- May 10 · at Hapoel Jerusalem (A)0-1
Beitar Jerusalem
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 3 · at Hapoel Tel Aviv (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · v Maccabi Netanya (H)1-4
- Aug 13 · at Austria Wien (A)2-1
- Aug 6 · v Austria Wien (H)1-2
- Jul 30 · v AEK Larnaca (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Bnei Sakhnin | Beitar Jerusalem |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.