Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 8 · 22:00 · Boca Juniors Reserve vs Colón Reserve
Likeliest: Boca Juniors Reserve win · 63%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boca Juniors Reserve63%62%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Colón Reserve13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 48% | −11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boca Juniors Reserve
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 1 · at CA Independiente Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 25 · at River Plate Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Atletico Rafaela Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · at Platense Reserve (A)2-0
- Sep 3 · v Quilmes Reserve (H)1-0
Colón Reserve
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 1 · v CD Riestra Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 25 · v Unión Santa Fe Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at CA Independiente Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Belgrano Reserve (H)1-3
- Sep 1 · at Atletico Rafaela Reserve (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Boca Juniors Reserve | Colón Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.