Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 15 · 22:00 · Boca Juniors Reserve vs Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve
Likeliest: Boca Juniors Reserve win · 76%
We make it 46% for both teams to score. The market says 36%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boca Juniors Reserve76%73%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−2
OursMarket
Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve8%10%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 36% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 90% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boca Juniors Reserve
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 8 · v Colón Reserve (H)1-0
- Oct 1 · at CA Independiente Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 25 · at River Plate Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Atletico Rafaela Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · at Platense Reserve (A)2-0
Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 7 · v CA Independiente Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 29 · at Atletico Rafaela Reserve (A)2-3
- Sep 22 · at Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (A)0-4
- Sep 16 · v Platense Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 8 · at Quilmes Reserve (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Boca Juniors Reserve | Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 0-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.