Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Sep 9 · 00:30 · Boca Juniors vs São Paulo
Likeliest: Boca Juniors win · 60%
We make it 47% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boca Juniors60%54%+6
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
São Paulo15%19%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 39% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 34% | 39% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 46% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 74% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boca Juniors
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (A)2-2
- Sep 3 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Lanús (H)1-0
- Aug 24 · at Racing Club (A)1-1
- Aug 18 · at Recoleta FC (A)4-0
São Paulo
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 5 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Chapecoense (A)0-1
- Aug 19 · v Bolívar (H)3-1
- Aug 16 · v Coritiba (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Boca Juniors | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.