Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Oct 14 · 00:30 · Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
Likeliest: Boca Juniors win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boca Juniors51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+2
OursMarket
Vasco da Gama18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 40% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boca Juniors
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 9 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (H)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Racing Club (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · at San Lorenzo (A)2-0
- Sep 16 · at São Paulo (A)1-1
Vasco da Gama
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Remo (H)0-0
- Oct 7 · at Botafogo (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Coritiba (H)5-0
- Sep 15 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Grêmio (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Boca Juniors | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.